Wells Fargo Thanksgiving Food Report

Presented by Dr. Michael Swanson, Chief Agricultural Economist; Robin Wenzel, Head of Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute; and Courtney Schmidt, Agri-Food Institute Sector Manager

In a win for consumers and a testament to the behind-the-scenes coordination between producers and retailers, the American consumer will have reason to celebrate this Thanksgiving. Even though the cost of food at home measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up 2.7% from a year ago, the cost of Wells Fargo’s Thanksgiving menu has fallen by about 2 to 3%, depending on the shopper’s strategy. It is fascinating to explore this difference and why it is happening. At the heart of the uptick in the CPI’s food-at-home increase is protein, specifically beef and eggs, which are not on the Thanksgiving menu. Without those items, consumers will find relief in a traditional Thanksgiving meal. An all private-label (store brand) menu comes in at $80, while an all national-name brand menu totals $95.^* Budget conscious consumers will also have room to mix and match based on preference.

Turkey triumph: The bird that beat inflation

Let’s start with the All Star of Thanksgiving, the turkey. National name brands show year-over-year savings, as America’s turkey producers and retailers coordinate all year to bring many birds to the supermarket for the rush of buying. Estimated retail prices are down 3.7% from a year ago for national brands. According to Circana, the turkey market sells the majority of the whole birds in the two weeks just before Thanksgiving, however, the rest of the year they are producing turkeys for sandwich meat and other delicious products. The turkey industry takes orders from the supermarkets months in advance for Thanksgiving. It looks like producers picked the right number of birds to prepare, and the price reflects the lower cost of feeding turkeys in a competitive market. While turkey is the clear winner for the centerpiece of the table, if guests are not fans of the bird, roast chicken and spiral cut ham are other moderately priced proteins to consider when feeding a crowd.

Frozen veggie showdown: National brands vs. private label

Here’s where the private-label and national brand showdown gets interesting. National name brand frozen vegetables are down a whopping 15%. In contrast, private label frozen vegetables barely changed, increasing 0.8%. Clearly the consumer has pressured the national brands to offer more value to get their share of the sales. Those who prefer cooking fresh veggies, can expect prices to be similar or slightly higher than frozen. However, shoppers are encouraged to shop around for deals, especially with big box retailers offering deals when buying in bulk.

Cranberries, gravy, rolls and pumpkin pie: The unsung heroes of holiday savings

Private brand dinner rolls saw the biggest savings this year with a 22% price decrease. This reflects a softness in consumer demand for traditional bread products. The next group of savings comes from stuffing for the turkey, prepared gravy mix, and fresh cranberries. All of these key sides dropped between 3 and 4 % from last year. Like frozen vegetables, they are being pressured by more supply and private label price competition. The sweetest savings are seen with national brand pumpkin pies, down 3%. To save on these items, shoppers should select private label for stuffing, dinner rolls and gravy mix, but when it comes to fresh cranberries and pumpkin pie, consumers can head straight to the national brands.

Mashed potato magic: Convenience meets cost savings

Prepared mashed potatoes are a new addition to the Wells Fargo Thanksgiving Day menu. This category has seen explosive growth over the last several years thanks to its quality and convenience. No doubt, you can save money by buying a ten-pound bag of spuds and getting to work with a peeler, boiling and mashing. However, many Americans find the trade-off of money for convenience a great deal in this case. This category saw a price drop of 1.5% from last year with a better potato crop and competition at work. And, with private and national brands in a price tug of war, consumers can make their final selection based on preference not cost.

Sides holding the line: Stability in a volatile market

There were two categories that stayed the same or increased slightly from last year. Prepackaged salad mix nudged higher by 0.3% and whipping cream rose 3%, which is in line with the dairy category as a whole (up 1.4% year-over-year). Last year’s price savings in dairy have been reversed slightly, leaving the category more or less flat. Like potatoes, the price of these items are within reach of one another in the national and private label challenge, so again, the consumer has the freedom to choose based on preference.

Beer’s bubbling, wine’s wobbling, and soda’s split: Thanksgiving drinks are making moves

It would not be a celebration without the beverages. This Thanksgiving has the same up and some down activity in the beverage category. The beer sector is up 3% from a year ago even as the category has faced some slowdowns in consumption over time. In contrast, the wine category as a whole is flat at very slight decline of 0.1% from last year. Soft drinks have seen an interesting split with 12 ounce can pricing falling 3% from last year, but the big 2-liter bottle pricing is up 7% over the same period. Even with that difference in price change, the big bottles offer big price savings. The BLS reports that the average 12 ounce can of soda is less than $1, but you can get two liters for $2.21. That makes the big bottles 31% less expensive than the cans, so break out some cups and ice cubes.

Turkey day feastonimics: Cook up a side of strategy for the big day

This Thanksgiving, consumers have more control over their grocery budgets than they might expect. Thanks to strategic coordination between producers and retailers, and the growing strength of private label offerings, a full holiday meal for ten can be served for just $80. While inflation continues to impact certain categories like beef and dairy, shoppers who stick to a traditional Thanksgiving menu and shop wisely between national and store brands can unlock meaningful savings. With thoughtful choices and a bit of planning, the CFOs of the Thanksgiving table can deliver a festive, satisfying meal without breaking the bank.