U.S. Economic Outlook

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Monthly Economic Outlook

Economists Sarah House and Shannon Grein discuss the outlook.

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Read our commentary and view forecast tables on U.S. economic conditions, including projections for the financial markets.

June

Second-half slowdown despite improved fundamentals – 06/11/2025

May

Trade war impact is just getting started – 05/08/2025

April

Tariffs likely will cause a modest stagflationary shock to the U.S. economy – 04/08/2025

March

U.S. economy appears to have lost some momentum recently – 03/13/2025

February

Tariffs likely to impart a modest stagflationary hit to the economy this year – 02/13/2025

January

U.S. economy has strong momentum, but policy uncertainty clouds the outlook – 01/16/2025

December

Economic growth downgraded in 2025 – 12/12/2024

November

2025 annual outlook – 11/21/2024