High Fences, Low Growth: Simulating the Latest Tariff Effects
The upshot of President Trump's tariff announcements is an escalation that redefines America's role in global trade. Access our report to read more on the estimated weaker growth, higher inflation and increased unemployment.
Read our special reports on current events affecting the financial markets, such as Federal Reserve meetings, and government policies.
March
- March FOMC: In the right place for now – 03/18/2026
- FOMC preview: Powell's job not getting any easier – 03/12/2026
- Energy prices & economic growth: The difference between now and then – 03/12/2026
- What would it take to tip the economy into recession? – 03/09/2026
- February CPI preview: Disinflation progress looks to be stalling again – 03/06/2026
- The residential outlook – 03/04/2026
- The conflict with Iran: FAQ with the team – 03/02/2026
February
- February employment preview: Back to payroll reality – 02/27/2026
- What the Supreme Court ruling means for tariffs...and what it doesn’t – 02/20/2026
- January CPI preview: Shutdown quirks fade, seasonal issues reemerge – 02/09/2026
- Gold is fixing the trade deficit, but only on paper – 02/06/2026
January
- Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair – 01/30/2026
- Treasury refunding preview: Steady coupon supply – 01/30/2026
- January employment preview: Modest lift to hiring, trend still soft – 01/29/2026
- January FOMC: The window to cut is closing – 01/28/2026
- U.S. population growth slowed in 2025 – 01/28/2026
- Government shutdown watch: Shutdown odds rising – 01/26/2026
- Tariffs as statecraft: Escalation to retraction on Greenland – 01/23/2026
- FOMC preview: On hold until when? – 01/23/2026
- Tax refund season: Big and beautiful – 01/13/2026
- More pressure on the Federal Reserve emerges – 01/12/2026
- Court brief – 01/08/2026
- December CPI preview: Payback pending – 01/08/2026
December
- Our favorite charts of 2025 – 12/19/2025
- November CPI preview: Detour around the October pothole – 12/16/2025
- Time and a half: U.S. employment report preview – 12/15/2025