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U.S. Labor Markets—Signals of Strength and Struggle

Wells Fargo Investment Institute - June 6, 2019

Key Insights

  • In recent quarters, employment reports have been consistent with robust labor market conditions—reflecting an extended period of U.S. economic strength.
  • Historically, these employment trends have preceded business cycle turns that eventually gave way to recession. We do not believe that a U.S. recession is imminent, but we expect some labor market measures to soften later in 2019 as economic growth slows.
  • This likely will contribute to renewed growth concerns and heightened market volatility. In this month’s report, we analyze leading, coincident, and lagging labor-market indicators to offer insight on the timing of U.S. economic and market changes.

Download the report (PDF)