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Página principalBull super-cycles are an extended period of time, historically between 15-20 years where commodity prices tend to move upward together.
Each asset class has its own risk and return characteristics. The level of risk associated with a particular investment or asset class generally correlates with the level of return the investment or asset class might achieve. Stock markets, especially foreign markets, are volatile. Stock values may fluctuate in response to general economic and market conditions, the prospects of individual companies, and industry sectors. Bonds are subject to market, interest rate, price, credit/default, liquidity, inflation and other risks. Prices tend to be inversely affected by changes in interest rates. Although Treasuries are considered free from credit risk they are subject to other types of risks. These risks include interest rate risk, which may cause the underlying value of the bond to fluctuate.
Investing in commodities is not appropriate for all investors. Exposure to the commodities markets may subject an investment to greater share price volatility than an investment in traditional equity or debt securities. The prices of various commodities may fluctuate based on numerous factors including changes in supply and demand relationships, weather and acts of nature, agricultural conditions, international trade conditions, fiscal monetary and exchange control programs, domestic and foreign political and economic events and policies, and changes in interest rates or sectors affecting a particular industry or commodity. Products that invest in commodities may employ more complex strategies which may expose investors to additional risks, including futures roll yield risk. Investing in gold or other precious metals involves special risk considerations such as severe price fluctuations and adverse economic and regulatory developments affecting the sector or industry.
Bloomberg Commodity Index is comprised of 22 exchange-traded futures on physical commodities and represents 20 commodities weighted to account for economic significance and market liquidity.
Commodity Composite measures a basket of commodity prices as well as inflation. It blends the historical commodity index introduced by George F. Warren & Frank A. Pearson, former academics at Cornell, collected and published commodity price data in their book, Prices, and the producer price index for commodities (PPI-Commodities), and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Index of Wholesale Prices of 15 Commodities, the Reuters Continuous Commodity Index, and the Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return. The index components and weightings, from Warren and Pearson’s Prices, change over time but the 11 commodity groups used from 1786-1932 are: Farm Products, Foods, Hides and Leather products, Textile Products, Fuel and Lighting, Metals and Metal Products, Building Materials, Chemicals and drugs, Spirits (stopped tracking 1890), House furnishing Goods, and Miscellaneous. The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index reflects the returns that are potentially available through an unleveraged investment in the futures contracts on 19 physical commodities comprising the Index plus the rate of interest that could be earned on cash collateral invested in specified Treasury Bills. The Index is a rolling index rebalancing annually. The PPI-Commodities is compiled by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and shows the average price change from the previous month for commodities such as energy, coal, crude oil and the steel scrap. The NBER Index of Wholesale Prices of 15 Commodities is a measure of price movements of 15 sensitive basic commodities whose markets are presumed to be among the first to be influenced by changes in economic conditions. The Reuters Continuous Commodity Index comprises 17 commodity futures that are continuously rebalanced: cocoa, coffee, copper, corn, cotton, crude oil, gold, heating oil, live cattle, Live hogs, natural gas, orange juice, platinum, silver, soybeans, sugar no. 11, and wheat.
The Commodity Composite connects the aforementioned components at the following years:
Warren and Pearson- Prices: 1720-1932, BLS PPI-Commodities: 1933-1946, NBER: 1946-1956, Reuters Continuous Commodity Index: 1956-1999, Bloomberg Commodity Index Total Return: 1999- current.
Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unweighted index of 30 "blue-chip" industrial U.S. stocks.
NDR Commodity Composite measures a basket of commodity prices as well as inflation. It blends the prices obtain by George F. Warren & Frank A. Pearson, the purchasing manager index (PPI) and the Reuter’s Continuous Commodity Index. George F. Warren & Frank A. Pearson, former academics at Cornell, collected and published commodity price data over a period of time, from 1749 through 1932. The PPI measures the average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output. The Thompson Reuters Equal Weighted Continuous Commodity Index comprises 17 commodity futures that are continuously rebalanced: Cocoa, Coffee Copper, Corn, Cotton, Crude Oil, Gold, Heating Oil, Live Cattle, Live Hogs, Natural Gas, Orange juice, Platinum, Silver, Soybeans, Sugar No. 11, and Wheat.
NDR Energy Commodity Composite is an equal-weighted basket of the energy commodities in the Reuters Continuous Commodity Index.
NDR Food Commodity Composite is an equal-weighted basket of the food commodities in the Reuter’s Continuous Commodity Index.
S&P 500 Index is a market capitalization-weighted index composed of 500 widely held common stocks that is generally considered representative of the U.S. stock market.
An index is unmanaged and not available for direct investment.
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The information contained herein constitutes general information and is not directed to, designed for, or individually tailored to, any particular investor or potential investor. This report is not intended to be a client-specific suitability or best interest analysis or recommendation, an offer to participate in any investment, or a recommendation to buy, hold or sell securities. Do not use this report as the sole basis for investment decisions. Do not select an asset class or investment product based on performance alone. Consider all relevant information, including your existing portfolio, investment objectives, risk tolerance, liquidity needs and investment time horizon. The material contained herein has been prepared from sources and data we believe to be reliable but we make no guarantee to its accuracy or completeness.
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