As the business cycle ages, we explore the potential upside and downside risks to our outlook. On the upside, the U.S. labor market is close to full employment, supporting both consumer spending and housing. On the downside, weak corporate profits, a strong dollar, and modest global growth are limiting business investment and export growth. Inflation is expected to rise gradually toward the Fed’s 2% target, strengthening the case for modest monetary policy tightening. However, capital flows will likely limit rate rises at the long end of the curve.
John Silvia, Ph.D., Managing Director, Chief Economist
John Silvia is a managing director and the chief economist for Wells Fargo. Based in Charlotte, North Carolina, he has held his position since he joined Wachovia, a Wells Fargo predecessor, in 2002 as the company’s chief economist.
Before his current position, John worked on Capitol Hill as senior economist for the U.S. Senate Joint Economic Committee and chief economist for the U.S. Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. Before that, he was chief economist of Kemper Funds and managing director of Scudder Kemper Investments, Inc.
John served as the president of the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) in 2015 and was awarded a NABE Fellow Certificate of Recognition in 2011 for outstanding contributions to the business economics profession and leadership among business economists to the nation. For the second time in three years, he was awarded the best overall forecast by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, as well as the best unemployment rate forecast for 2011. John is on the Bloomberg Best Forecast list for his forecasts of GDP, the ISM manufacturing index, housing starts, and the unemployment rate.
John holds B.A. and Ph.D. degrees in economics from Northeastern University in Boston and has a master’s degree in economics from Brown University. John’s first book, Dynamic Economic Decision Making, was published by Wiley in August, 2011. His second book, Economic and Business Forecasting, was published in 2014, also by Wiley. His third book, Economic Modeling in the Post Great Recession Era, was published in 2017 by Wiley.
John is a Certified Business Economist (CBE). He serves as a member of the Blue Chip Panel of Economic Forecasters and also serves on an informal advisory group for the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. He served as chair for the Economic Advisory Committee of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association (SIFMA) Economic Advisory Roundtable. John also serves on the finance committee for the Mint Museum in Charlotte and is a regular lecturer to the Cornell Food Executive Program. John is past president of the Charlotte Economics Club. He has also served on economic advisory committees to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, and the Public Securities Association.
A strong supporter of education and civic affairs, John serves as a member of the Business Advisory Council at the Walker College of Business at Appalachian State University in Boone, North Carolina, and on the President’s Council for Charlotte’s Central Piedmont Community College. He has previously served as a board member of the British American Business Council of North Carolina, and on the Economic Development Board for the state of North Carolina, a special appointment by the governor. He has also served on the Business Advisory Committee for the city of Charlotte.
Mark Vitner, Managing Director, Senior Economist
Mark Vitner is a managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo, responsible for tracking U.S. and regional economic trends. Based in Charlotte, North Carolina, he also writes for the company’s Monthly Economic Outlook report and the Weekly Economic & Financial Commentary, and he provides regular updates on the housing markets, commercial real estate, regional economies, consumer spending, and issues impacting small business.
Mark joined a Wells Fargo predecessor institution in 1993. Before that, he spent nine years as an economist for Barnett Banks in Jacksonville, Florida. Mark’s commentary has been featured in the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and many other publications.
Originally from Atlanta, Mark earned a B.B.A. in economics from the University of Georgia and an M.B.A. from the University of North Florida. He has completed further graduate work in economics at the University of Florida. He also completed the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Advanced Training in Economics program at Carnegie Mellon University.
Mark is a member of NABE and is also a member of that group’s inaugural Certified Business Economist class. Mark is a past president and co-founder of the NABE Charlotte chapter, The Charlotte Economics Club. He serves as a distinguished lecturer and practitioner at the University of Georgia. He is a member of the American Economic Association, the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, and the Western Economic Association. He also chaired the Economic Advisory Council for the California Chamber of Commerce for three years. He currently serves as the chief economist for the North Carolina chapter of the CCIM Institute, which confers the Certified Commercial Investment Member designation. He is a member of the Blue Chip economic forecasting panel and the Western Blue Chip forecasts panel, and he serves on the Joint Advisory Board of Economists for the Commonwealth of Virginia.
Jay Bryson, Ph.D., Managing Director, Global Economist
Jay Bryson is a managing director and global economist at Wells Fargo Securities, where he provides analysis on macroeconomic developments in the major economies of the world. He is based in Charlotte, N.C.
Before joining the company in 1998, Jay was an economist in the Division of International Finance at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C. From 1989 to 1992 he was an assistant professor of economics at the University of Alabama. Jay has also lectured on international economics and macroeconomics at the School for Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins University and at Georgetown University.
Jay has published in academic and popular economic journals, and his comments on the economy regularly appear in the Wall Street Journal, the New York Times, and USA Today. He also makes frequent appearances on CNBC and Bloomberg TV. Jay is a member of the American Economic Association and the Charlotte Economics Club. He is also a member of the National Association for Business Economics and served on its board of directors from 2010 to 2013.
Jay received his B.A. and Ph.D. degrees in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.